Ten Years at the CCMA: What the Numbers Tell Us—and Where Dismissals Are Heading Next

CCMA data over the past decade show a persistently high volume of referrals dominated by unfair dismissal disputes, with a marked surge in basic‑conditions and minimum‑wage enforcement since 2021 and consistently strong operational efficiency despite fiscal pressure. Looking ahead, the mix of dismissal cases is likely to tilt gradually away from pure misconduct toward incapacity, operational requirements, and automatically‑unfair dismissal claims as new codes, wage enforcement and discrimination frameworks bed down.

Structural dominance of unfair dismissal

Unfair dismissal has remained the single largest category in the CCMA’s caseload for years, with recent figures showing it accounts for roughly 52% of all referrals in 2023/24, confirming that individual termination disputes are still the core pressure point in South African workplaces.​

Rising BCEA and NMW enforcement

Since around 2021 the CCMA has experienced a sharp increase in referrals under the Basic Conditions of Employment Act and the National Minimum Wage Act, with BCEA/NMWA referrals excluding severance rising from about 33 571 in 2021/22 to 48 009 in 2022/23 and 53 609 in 2023/24. This trend suggests that vulnerable workers and enforcement agencies are using the CCMA more actively to secure compliance with wages, hours and leave standards, particularly after the economic shocks of COVID‑19 and the tightening of the national minimum wage regime.​

Caseload volume, efficiency and sectoral concentration

Total referrals have stayed very high over the decade, with annual totals fluctuating in the 150 000–220 000 range, dipping during the height of the COVID‑19 restrictions and then rebounding strongly to around 184 075 in 2022/23 and 188 619–193 069 in 2023/24–2024/25. Despite this volume, the CCMA continues to meet or exceed its own efficiency targets, reporting that almost all conciliations are set down within 30 days, with average turnaround times of about 25–26 days for conciliation and around 85–109 days for arbitration, even as budgets tighten. Referrals remain highly concentrated in lower‑wage, high‑turnover sectors such as private security, retail, domestic work, agriculture and mining, underscoring structural vulnerability and the centrality of the CCMA for precarious workers.​

Dismissal mix and emerging themes

Historical analyses of the CCMA database indicate that misconduct accounts for most dismissal disputes, with incapacity and retrenchment matters forming only a small fraction of overall dismissal referrals because many large‑scale retrenchments are channelled through section 189A facilitation and the Labour Court. Automatically‑unfair and constructive‑dismissal cases are a numerically small but symbolically important subset, often linked to discrimination, freedom‑of‑association and harassment claims which may be pursued in parallel with Equality Court or Labour Court processes.​

Predictive outlook: what employers should expect

Over the next five years, caseloads are likely to remain elevated as slow growth, high unemployment and restructuring continue, but the nature of disputes will evolve: misconduct will still dominate, yet more terminations will be challenged as incapacity (including incompatibility), operational requirements and automatically‑unfair dismissal grounded in discrimination or protected‑disclosure claims. Intensified national‑minimum‑wage enforcement, proactive outreach in vulnerable sectors and the CCMA’s digital referral platforms are expected to generate further growth in BCEA/NMWA claims, while sustained con‑arb and early‑settlement performance will keep time‑to‑finality relatively stable even under fiscal constraints. For employers, this points to three priorities: invest in front‑end workplace justice (fair procedures, meaningful consultation and alternative dispute‑resolution), professionalise incapacity and retrenchment processes to withstand closer scrutiny, and treat wage, working‑time and discrimination compliance as board‑level risks rather than technical HR issues if they wish to stay off the CCMA’s “frequent flyer” list in the decade ahead.

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